The Taliban are likely to impose a harsh regime, experts say, despite their promises to respect the rights of women and minorities and grant amnesty to those who have supported U.S. efforts. Meanwhile, the group faces immense challenges in ensuring security, health care and economic opportunities for Afghans. The United States has an interest in preserving the many political, human rights and security achievements that have been made in Afghanistan since 2001. The Taliban takeover of the country could once again turn Afghanistan into a safe haven for terrorists, as the group is suspected of having ties to al-Qaeda. The takeover also threatens to reverse progress in ensuring the rights of women and girls. In addition, growing internal instability, a mass exodus of refugees and a growing humanitarian crisis could have regional implications if neighbouring countries respond. In addition, Pakistan, India, Iran and Russia are all likely to compete for influence in Kabul and with sub-national players. In their shadow government, the Taliban have effectively ensured order and enforcement of the rules. B for example, by ensuring that teachers show up to teach when schools are allowed to work and government employees do not steal supplies from clinics. The Taliban have also received a lot of political capital from a quick, uncorrupted and forced settlement of disputes (and the protection of the poppy economy). And he distinguished himself by taxing economic activity in Afghanistan, legally and illegally – from NATO supply trucks and government aid programs to drugs and deforestation.
That the Taliban are back in power on the 20th anniversary of 9/11 is extremely painful for the United States, NATO and many Afghans. In 2001, the United States overthrew the Taliban regime to defeat al-Qaeda, a goal it had largely achieved. But the United States has also tried to defeat the Taliban and leave behind a pluralistic, human rights-respecting and economically viable Afghan state. It has not achieved these objectives. There have been many mistakes and problems in international efforts, but most importantly, the United States has never succeeded in achieving good governance in Afghanistan or in convincing Pakistan to cease its multifaceted support for the Taliban. Afghan leaders consistently place their narrow-minded and corrupt personal interests above national interests. Mismanagement has even eroded the Afghan security forces, which the U.S. had built up for 20 years at a cost of about $88 billion. These various challenges ahead do not mean that the West can easily overthrow the Taliban regime through sanctions or preserve the political pluralism and human and women`s rights that have existed – at least formally – for the past 20 years. Based on illegal and informal economies and exploiting deep divisions between international actors, brutal regimes can exist for years, even with broken economies – see North Korea, Iran, Venezuela or Myanmar. Widespread Western sanctions and isolation will only exacerbate the terrible suffering of the Afghan people.
But in 2019, a response to the same poll found that only 13.4 percent of Afghans had sympathy for the Taliban [PDF]. When intra-Afghan peace talks stalled in early 2021, an overwhelming majority of respondents said it was important to protect women`s rights, freedom of expression and the current constitution. About 44 percent of Afghans surveyed said they believe Afghanistan could achieve peace in the next two years. The same week the Taliban announced the government, they also violently dispersed a protest in Kabul. If I am Afghan, what does the government say about my future now? It is not without understanding that this would cost the movement in terms of international legitimacy. Nevertheless, the appointments have been made. Because it was the right thing for them. These are the powerful people in the movement, and if the Taliban are to form a government, the most powerful people in the movement will occupy the most important positions in the government. If the Taliban can make sure that the economy works well, that it is peaceful and that people can live, I think the pressure to get involved, women`s rights and the like, can actually become much more manageable. If they don`t give people rights, if they`re not inclusive, and at the same time people get poorer, you`ll see some kind of resistance. Mullah Haibatullah will have real power, but I think he probably won`t be too centralized just because there are too many heavyweights and the power in the movement is more diffuse right now.
I don`t think anyone has the position of Mullah Omar, who can now claim this kind of monopoly of power in the group. Experts say the Taliban pose an immediate threat to the civil and political rights of Afghans enshrined in the constitution created by the US-backed government. Foreign governments have warned that if the Taliban do not protect the rights of Afghans, they could stop providing aid, which could lead to a serious humanitarian crisis. Observers are also concerned that the Taliban may allow terrorists to operate in Afghanistan and threaten regional and global security. “I assure all compatriots that the numbers will work hard to enforce Islamic rules and Sharia law in the country,” Akhundzada, who has never been seen in public, said in a statement issued in English. If the Taliban rule very brutally, international actors will maintain sanctions against the group and perhaps strengthen them. Countries and companies that want to deal legally with Taliban Afghanistan would be discouraged. If no humanitarian exemption from sanctions is guaranteed, even the work of NGOs could stop. But questions are already being asked about how the group will govern the country and what its rule means for women, human rights and political freedoms.
Women face an uncertain future. Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said the group would respect the rights of women and minorities “in accordance with Afghan norms and Islamic values.” Supporting Gender Equality: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan David Zucchino and Najim Rahim New York Times May 27, 2021 Has the government misled the public about the war in Afghanistan? Biden`s withdrawal from Afghanistan on 9/11: What you need to know Mujahid also said that Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar would be the deputy leader. Previously, he was the head of his movement`s political bureau and oversaw the signing of the US withdrawal agreement in 2020. In the historic week of the US military in Afghanistan before a peace deal with the Taliban How China sees the US withdrawal from Afghanistan I imagine that the Taliban`s reaction to peaceful protests could influence the possibility of a better organized armed resistance. Afghanistan`s future depends on U.S. dollars, not troops, the Minister of Higher Education as well. He is not illiterate, but he would not have studied at a university.
He is a haqqani and a graduate of the Haqqani madrassas, but not of the Haqqani family. He also issued a statement saying that modern education is good, but religious education also gives you, or perhaps even more, respect and dignity. Ahmed Rashid New York Review of Books September 26, 2017 Mullah Yaqoob, son of Taliban founder and late Supreme Leader Mullah Omar, was appointed defense minister, while the post of interior minister was given to Sirajuddin Haqqani, the head of the fearsome Haqqani network, who also served as deputy leader of the Taliban. In February 2020, after more than a year of direct negotiations, the U.S. government and the Taliban signed a peace agreement that set a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Under the agreement, the U.S. pledged to withdraw U.S.
troops to about 8,500 within 135 days and complete a full withdrawal within fourteen months. In return, the Taliban pledged to prevent the use of areas under their control by terrorist groups and to enter into negotiations with the Afghan government. However, no formal ceasefire has been introduced. After a brief drop in violence, the Taliban quickly resumed their attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. Direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban began months after the agreement began in early March 2020, experienced several delays, and ultimately made little progress. Violence across Afghanistan continued in 2020 and 2021, when the United States stepped up its airstrikes and attacks on the Taliban. Meanwhile, the Taliban attacked Afghan government and Afghan security forces targets and made territorial gains. The other solution is simply to use the remaining positions — the government is not yet a full-fledged government — to bring in other non-Taliban elements. I do not think there will be women at the cabinet level, but I think they can appoint women at the lower levels, such as secondary leadership positions, under strong international pressure. Perhaps in the health sector, in the education sector, where they have all already shown some willingness to involve women. I think they will tackle it gradually, doing some things on the margins to see to what extent they can manage the international response.
Laurel Miller CFR Blog, “Force through Peace” January 20, 2021 Until they came to power, the Taliban generated their income primarily through criminal activities, including opium poppy cultivation, drug trafficking, extortion of local businesses and kidnappings, according to the United Nations Observer Group. .
